Mladenov: Biggest escalation of conflicts in Middle East in recent years
This is perhaps the biggest escalation of conflicts in the Middle East in recent years, Nikolai Mladenov, who from 2015 to 2020 was UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process, said in an interview on October 2 with public broadcaster Bulgarian National Television’s The World and US programme.
The interview with Mladenov followed Iran’s missile strikes on Israel amid the worsening situation in the Middle East.
“I think what Iran did yesterday is absolutely unacceptable, unforgivable. The attack on Israel is likely to receive a response from the Israeli side,” said Mladenov, who before two posts at the UN was successively Bulgaria’s defence and foreign minister.
“Unfortunately, this puts us in a spiral of higher and higher escalation that threatens the security of the entire region,” he said.
Mladenov said that it must not be forgotten that the problems in Gaza are not over.
“There are still Israeli hostages there that Hamas is holding, there are still active Hamas militant groups, there are still two million people living in ruins.”
The problem of radicalisation in Gaza would be a factor in the security of the entire region, he said.
In Lebanon, unfortunately, Lebanese political forces, for the time being at least, were showing an inability to use the crisis with Hezbollah and form functioning state institutions to take the country out of the grip of Hezbollah, which is an extremely dangerous terrorist organisation.
Mladenov noted that Lebanon is still without a president, the term of the chief of the army general staff has expired, key positions in the central bank and in other state institutions are not filled by the people who should be in those positions.
“This effectively renders Lebanon’s legitimate government dysfunctional,” Mladenov said.
“And the escalation we’ve seen in the past 24 hours shows that with each successive Iranian strike on Israel, the blow gets bigger and heavier.”
Mladenov said that there were still opportunities for diplomacy.
“They are not exhausted. But diplomacy is always more effective when behind it are not only good words and appeals, but also the threat of consequences,” he said.
“Everyone needs to realise that what is happening right now is not only dangerous, but they need to be reminded of what the consequences would be if we continue down the path of such an escalation.
“Here, the role of the United States, of the Gulf States, of European countries, is extremely important. Perhaps first of all, the role of the United States and the countries of the Middle East is key.”
But the diplomatic moves had been extremely ineffective, he said.
“We have seen calls by the United States for a cease-fire in Gaza that have not brought the necessary end. We saw the call for a truce in Lebanon, literally hours before the assassination of the Hezbollah leader, which also came to nothing. We have seen other problems in Sudan, etc., which continue to be extremely serious.
“But here, the international community, I mean the United States, the Middle East, Europe and other countries must come out with an absolutely categorical and clear position to insist on stopping the escalation in the Middle East right now.”
Continuing on this path “will really lead us to a situation where we won’t know where the next risk will come from,” Mladenov said.
“It may not be from Iran. It could be from some Shiite group in Iraq, it could be from the Houthis in Yemen, and for that we need something here that the Gulf countries have also called for very often, and that is a comprehensive approach to the security of the region that creates a an opportunity to restore some form of dialogue, because dialogues are currently suspended on all lines.”
Mladenov said that Israel’s short-term goals were “clear and understandable”.
“Eliminating the threat to Israel from Hezbollah is extremely key to security,” he said.
“Let’s not forget that more than 100 000 Israelis cannot live in their homes in northern Israel because they are under constant rocket fire from Hezbollah.
“Israel’s short-term tasks in Gaza are also clear. The return of the hostages and the removal of the military threat from Hezbollah.”
The problem, however, is that if the short-term tasks are clear, the long-term with perspective remains unclear, both with regard to Gaza and Lebanon, Mladenov said.
Everyone in the region is extremely worried about what was happening, he said.
“I would say that there are two points here that are very important.
“The first is that the Gulf states, perhaps at the moment, are precisely in the position of being a mediator between the warring parties.
“The second topic that worries everyone is that not only the confrontation between Iran and Israel should be carefully monitored, but also the actions of other groups in the region that are close to Iran,” he said.
Mladenov said that there are many paramilitary groups in Iraq that have the potential to cause a lot of trouble in the region as well.
“The situation in Syria is far from calm. There, the risks are also very significant. The presence of the Houthis also remains a very serious risk.
“When you look at the risks on the Gulf side, they are really multi-layered, each of them has to be carefully managed as much as possible, but the more these efforts are together among the Gulf countries, in partnership with the US, with Europe, with other global powers, the greater the chance to reduce tensions in the region.
“Although the chances of that are slim right now, I don’t think they’re out of the question,” Mladenov said.
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