EU population estimated to be 451M people

As a consequence of the mass influx of refugees from Ukraine into the European Union as a result of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, the EU’s population is estimated to have reached 451 million people on January 1 2023, EU statistics agency Eurostat said on March 30.

The EU’s population is projected to peak at 453 million people in 2026, before decreasing to a projected level of 420 million in 2100, Eurostat said.

After a decrease in 2020 and 2021 due to the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic, the population of the EU started recovering during the course of 2022.

According to the latest population projections issued by Eurostat, the EU’s population will decrease by six per cent between January 1 2022 and January 1 2100, equivalent to 27.3 million fewer people. 

The results are based on assumptions of partial convergence of EU countries’ fertility, mortality and migration patterns. 

The proportion of children and young people (aged 0 to 19 years) in the total population is projected to decrease from 20 per cent at the beginning of 2022 to 18 per cent by 2100.

Similarly, the share of working-age people (aged 20-64 years) in the EU’s total population is projected to decrease from 59 per cent in 2022 to 50 per cent in 2100.  

In contrast, the share of older age groups (65 years or more) in the EU’s total population is projected to increase. The share of those aged between 65-79 is expected to rise by 2 percentage points (pp) from 15 per cent at the beginning of 2022 to 17 per cent in 2100, while the share of those aged 80 years or more is foreseen to more than double, from six per cent to 15 per cent.

(Photo: Donna Adenine)

Please support The Sofia Globe’s independent journalism by clicking on the ‘become a patron’ button below and signing up to our page on

Become a Patron!

The Sofia Globe staff

The Sofia Globe - the Sofia-based fully independent English-language news and features website, covering Bulgaria, the Balkans and the EU. Sign up to subscribe to's daily bulletin through the form on our homepage.