Bulgaria’s April elections: Exacta poll sees Borissov’s party strengthening lead over BSP

A poll by the Exacta Research Group, the results of which were released on the final day of election campaigning on April 2, sees Boiko Borissov’s GERB party holding a lead of 8.5 points ahead of Kornelia Ninova’s Bulgarian Socialist Party.

The Exacta poll results emerged a day after Alpha Research announced results of its latest poll showing GERB as having 28.1 per cent of the support of those who intend to vote and the BSP at 19.8 per cent.

According to Exacta, there could be between six and eight groups in Bulgaria’s next National Assembly, depending on turnout, which would be affected by the Covid-19 pandemic.

The agency said that it expected that fewer than three million voters would go to the polling stations on April 4.

It said that Borissov’s electoral coalition of GERB and the Union of Democratic Forces had 28.5 per cent support, which it expected would rise further by election day.

An Exacta poll, the results of which were released on February 26, had seen the GERB-UDF electoral coalition as having 26.4 per cent support.

Ninova’s BSP had 20 per cent, the agency said, adding that it did not expect this would increase. Exacta’s poll results on February 26 showed the BSP at 22.3 per cent.

The party formed around cable television presenter Slavi Trifonov now had 13 per cent support among those who intended to vote, a marginal 0.6 per cent ahead of the Movement for Rights and Freedoms.

The agency’s previous poll showed Trifonov’s party at 13.5 per cent and the MRF at 8.5 per cent.

Hristo Ivanov’s reformist Democratic Bulgaria coalition had 6.7 per cent, up from the 5.1 per cent shown in the February 26 poll by Exacta.

Krassimir Karakachanov’s ultra-nationalist VMRO party currently has 4.3 per cent support, up from 4.1 per cent.

Also holding 4.3 per cent support is the formation around former ombudsman Maya Manolova, anti-government protest organisers the Poison Trio and a number of small extra-parliamentary parties. The previous poll had found this formation below the four per cent threshold for election to Parliament.

The Sofia Globe’s factfile on Bulgaria’s April 4 2021 National Assembly elections is here.

The poll by the Exacta Research Group was done using its own, and no external, funds. It was carried out among 1005 adults in 92 places in Bulgaria, using direct standardised interviews conducted face-to-face. The margin of error is three per cent.

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