Polls: Five groups certain to win seats in Bulgaria’s April 2026 parliamentary elections
Five political forces are certain to win seats in the 52nd National Assembly, being elected in Bulgaria’s early parliamentary elections on April 19, according to polls by the Alpha Research and Market Links agencies, the results of which were released on bTV on March 23.
According to Alpha Research’s poll, 29.4 per cent of those who intend voting will do so for ex-president Roumen Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria coalition.
Next is Boiko Borissov’s GERB-UDF, 20.7 per cent, with We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria in third place with 11.5 per cent, followed by the Movement for Rights and Freedoms – New Beginning, led by Magnitsky Act-sanctioned Delyan Peevski, 9.8 per cent, and Kostadin Kostadinov’s pro-Russian party Vuzrazhdane, 6.8 per cent.
The Alpha Research poll found the Bulgarian Socialist Party just below the threshold of at least four per cent of valid votes to win seats in the National Assembly, at 3.8 per cent.
National-populist Mech has 3.3 per cent and the Siyana coalition 2.4 per cent.
An Alpha Research poll, the results of which were released on March 5, showed Radev’s coalition at 32.6 per cent, GERB-UDF 19.7 per cent, WCC-DB 12.6 per cent, MRF-New Beginning 9.6 per cent, Vuzrazhdane 6.4 per cent and the BSP 3.6 per cent.
The Market Links poll found that Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria has 24.4 per cent of the support among those who intend voting.
According to Market Links, GERB-UDF has 18.6 per cent, WCC-DB 11.1 per cent, Peevski’s MRF-New Beginning 8.8 per cent and Vuzrazhane 4.6 per cent.
The poll found that the BSP had 3.1 per cent and Mech 2.4 per cent.
Below two per cent, according to Market Links, are the Siyana coalition, nationalist-populist Velichie, the Ahmed Dogan loyalists of the Alliance for Rights and Freedoms, Blue Bulgaria and populist ITN.
As The Sofia Globe reported previously, a poll by Market Links, the results of which were released on March 18, showed Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria at 21.2 per cent, GERB-UDF 18.6 per cent, WCC-DB at 12 per cent, MRF-New Beginning 7.2 per cent, Vuzrazhdane 4.9 per cent and the BSP 2.3 per cent.
If the two agencies’ new poll results are borne out on April 19, voter turnout will be higher than seen in parliamentary elections in Bulgaria in several years, at 54 per cent.
Market Links’s Dobromir Zhivkov told bTV that about 12 per cent of voters decide which party to support in the last days before election day.
Genoveva Petrova of Alpha Research said: “The future government of the country will most likely be formed around Roumen Radev’s formation”.
Mathematically, the task of forming a government will be easier if there are five groups in Parliament, Petrova said.
The Alpha Research poll was done by the agency and funded by bTV. The sample size is 1000 people. A stratified two-stage sample with a quota based on the main socio-demographic characteristics was used. The data was collected through a direct standardised interview with tablets at the homes of the respondents. The survey was conducted in the period March 12 – 20, 2026.
The Market Links poll was conducted nationally and funded and implemented jointly by bTV and Market Links. The poll was done among 1008 individuals over the age of 18 in the country between March 17 and 21 2026, using face-to-face interviews and an online survey.
(Photo: parliament.bg)
Bulgaria’s April 2026 parliamentary elections: The Sofia Globe’s factfile
