Bulgaria’s October 2024 elections: Poll sees seven, possibly eight group Parliament
A poll by the Alpha Research agency, the results of which were released three days ahead of Bulgaria’s October 27 early parliamentary elections, has found that seven – possibly eight – groups will get over the threshold to win seats in the 51st National Assembly.
Boiko Borissov’s centre-right GERB-UDF coalition has the largest share of support among those who intend voting in Bulgaria’s latest early parliamentary elections – the seventh time in three years that Bulgarians elect a legislature – at 26.5 per cent.
Vying for second place are the reformist We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (WCC-DB) coalition, 14.9 per cent, and pro-Kremlin party Vuzrazhdane, 14.2 per cent.
Movement for Rights and Freedoms founder Ahmed Dogan’s Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (ARF) coalition has 7.9 per cent, with his rival Delyan Peevski’s MRF – New Beginning coalition at 7.4 per cent.
The Bulgarian Socialist Party – United Left coalition is, in turn, close behind the rival MRF factions, at 7.2 per cent.
Well over the threshold of a four per cent share of valid votes to win seats is populist ITN, 6.1 per cent.
Just below that threshold is populist-nationalist Mech, 3.8 per cent.
The poll found that right-wing coalition Blue Bulgaria had 2.7 per cent and populist-nationalist Velichie 2.6 per cent.
Alpha Research said that GERB-UDF had managed to achieve high mobilisation among its supporters and to secure a comfortable lead over its opponents. GERB-UDF’s first place was among the few certainties in this election, the agency said.
WCC-DB had not yet managed to regain the support of voters who had renounced it in the June 2024 early parliamentary elections, while Vuzrazhdane faced competition from formations in the radical-populist niche such as ITN and Mech.
The agency said that while the positions of AFR and MRF – New Beginning were almost equal, ARF had a larger reserve of wavering voters, while MRF – New Beginning had stronger positions among mayors of settlements where the vote of Bulgarian ethnic Turks and Muslims is concentrated. It was unclear how the vote abroad would develop, Alpha Research said.
BSP – United Left both showed a relatively lower degree of mobilisation, instability and potential dynamics in support for them.
Of Mech, Blue Bulgaria and Velichie, the agency said that it was unlikely that two out of the three would be able to muster the votes to enter Parliament, but it was more likely that only one would capitalise on the “migrating” emotional and protest vote.
An option for protest-minded voters remains the “I do not support anyone” option, which is chosen by about three per cent of those who decided to go to the polls.
“Judging by people’s ratings, we are at the end of another lacklustre election campaign focused on tightening the ranks of die-hard sympathisers,” Alpha Research said.
Fifty-six per cent of those polled said that they had seen no sign of the elections where they lived.
Thirty to 32 per cent said that they intended voting. Mobilisation of a protest or penalising vote was possible in some places, which would slightly increase voter turnout, but there were no indications of a more serious wave, the agency said.
Alpha Research said that its poll reflected voluntarily shared views, attitudes and intentions to vote on October 27, but the share of bought, controlled or coerced votes was outside its scope.
The poll was done from October 20 to 23 2024 by Alpha Research, was published on the agency’s website and was carried out using its own funds. The poll was done among 1000 adult citizens from all over the country. A stratified two-stage sample with a quota according to the main socio-demographic characteristics was used. The information was collected through a direct standardised interview with tablets at the homes of the respondents.
(Photo: parliament.bg)
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