World Bank again slightly lowers economic growth forecast for Bulgaria for 2024

The World Bank has slightly lowered its economic growth forecast for Bulgaria for 2024, to 2.1 per cent, a reduction of 0.3 percentage points compared with the Bank’s January 2024 projection.

At the same time, in its Global Economics Prospects report, released on June 11, the World Bank lowered its economic growth prospect for Bulgaria for 2025, by 0.2 percentage points, to 3.1 per cent.

In January 2024, the Bank also had lowered its economic growth forecast for Bulgaria in comparison with June 2023, as The Sofia Globe reported at the time.

Growth in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) is projected to soften to 3.0 per cent this year and to 2.9 per cent in 2025, the World Bank’s June 2024 report said.

The slowdown in 2024 largely reflects decelerations in the Russian Federation and Türkiye.

Excluding these two economies and Ukraine, growth is projected to firm this year and next, as inflation eases, monetary policy rates are cut, and the growth of exports, particularly to the euro area, strengthens.

Geopolitical developments remain the predominant downside risk to the growth outlook, especially those linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and conflict in the Middle East.

Uncertainty about economic policies is also likely to remain elevated.

Although the risks of higher-than-expected inflation have decreased, there could still be upward pressure on commodity prices or wages, along with potential new episodes of financial strains, the World Bank said.

(Photo, of World Bank headquarters: Shiny Things)

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