The World Bank has slightly lowered its economic growth forecast for Bulgaria for 2024, to 2.4 per cent, a reduction of 0.4 percentage points compared with the Bank’s June 2023 projection.
At the same time, in its Global Economics Prospects report, released on January 10, the World Bank upped its economic growth prospect for Bulgaria for 2025, by 0.3 per cent, to 3.3 per cent.
Growth in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) is expected to moderate to 2.4 per cent this year, and then firm to 2.7 per cent in 2025, supported by strengthening domestic demand and a gradual recovery in the euro zone, the World Bank said.
In the near term, persistently high inflation will prevent a rapid easing of monetary policy in most economies and weigh on private consumption.
Projected fiscal consolidation further dampens the outlook. Downside risks continue to predominate.
An escalation of the conflict in the Middle East could increase energy prices, tighten financial conditions, and negatively affect confidence.
Geopolitical risks in the region, including an escalation of the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine, are elevated and could materialize.
Higher-than-anticipated inflation or a weaker-than-expected recovery in the euro area would also negatively affect regional activity.
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