Bulgaria’s June 2024 elections: Poll sees six groups winning seats

A poll by the Alpha Research agency, the results of which were released on May 8, sees six coalitions and parties winning seats in Bulgaria’s June 9 2024 European Parliament and early National Assembly elections.

Among those who intend voting in Bulgaria’s European Parliament elections, Boiko Borissov’s GERB-UDF coalition has 25.1 per cent support, the We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria coalition 18.5 per cent, pro-Kremlin party Vuzrazhdane 14.8 per cent, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms 14.4 per cent, the Bulgarian Socialist Party eight per cent and populist ITN 4.8 per cent.

In the early National Assembly elections, GERB-UDF has 25.4 per cent, WCC-DB 17.5 per cent, the MRF 14.9 per cent, Vuzrazhdane 14.6 per cent, the BSP 8.5 per cent and ITN 5.2 per cent.

Alpha Research said that GERB-UDF’s voters are characterised by high mobilisation, the second strongest after that among MRF supporters.

WCC-DB starts with significantly weakened positions after the collapse of the “rotation” – the failed plan for the Prime Minister’s chair to be handed over from WCC-DB to GERB-UDF – and the subsequent public controversies.

WCC-DB, eight points behind GERB-UDF, has lost 200 000 votes compared with its result in the 2023 National Assembly elections.

At the same time, strong attacks against it have the effect of uniting it more die-hard supporters, but not attracting the fringes.

WCC-DB hardly is attracting votes from those who supported other parties but on the contrary, is a “donor” to other parties, Alpha Research said.

The MRF and Vuzrazhdane are in practically equal places at the start of the campaign and each have a high degree of mobilisation among their supporters.

Both parties are distinguished by lower electoral interest in non-election periods and by quickly attracting votes in the elections themselves.

However, different dynamics can be expected of them during the campaign.

The MRF has no competitor in the niche of its potential sympathisers and its main goal is to get more of them to the polls.

However, Vuzrazhdane, which currently attracts supporters of both the WCC-DB and GERB-UDF who are disappointed by the “assemblage” – the now-defunct majority that supported the Denkov government – may lose votes to fringe left-wing grouping Solidarna or ITN.

There was a fluctuation in the vote for ITN and there was a large risk to the party that it would remain below the threshold for seats in the European Parliament, Alpha Research said.

To a large extent, GERB and the MRF will keep the same number of MEPs.Vuzrazhdane will get more votes from the nationalist electorate previously represented by VMRO.

The BSP will be the big loser in the European Parliament elections, with most likely three of its seats going to WCC-DB, the agency said.

The poll was done from April 25 to May 2 2024 by Alpha Research, using its own funds. The poll covered 1000 adult citizens from across the country. A stratified two-stage sample with a quota taking into account the main socio-demographic characteristics was used. The data was collected through a direct standardized interview using tablets at the homes of the respondents.

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