Bulgaria’s October 2024 elections: Poll sees seven-group Parliament

Seven groups are set for seats in Bulgaria’s 51st National Assembly, set to be elected on October 27, according to a poll financed and carried out jointly by bTV and Market Links, the results of which were released on October 22.

Boiko Borissov’s centre-right GERB-UDF coalition has the largest share of support among those who intend voting in Bulgaria’s latest early parliamentary elections, at 24 per cent, the poll found.

In second place is the reformist We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria coalition, 14.1 per cent, followed closely by pro-Kremlin party Vuzrazhdane, 13.1 per cent.

Fourth is Movement for Rights and Freedoms founder Ahmed Dogan’s Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (ARF) coalition, 8.3 per cent, and fifth, MRF parliamentary leader Delyan Peevski’s MRF – New Beginning coalition, 7.2 per cent.

In sixth place is the Bulgarian Socialist Party – United Left coalition, seven per cent, and seventh, the populist ITN party, 4.6 per cent.

Currently below the threshold of a minimum four per cent share of valid votes is the nationalist-populist Velichie party, 3.6 per cent, right-wing coalition Blue Bulgaria 2.8 per cent, and populist Mech, 1.6 per cent.

Those opting for “I don’t support anyone” add up to 2.1 per cent, and undecideds are 9.7 per cent.

Market Links’s Dobromir Zhivkov told bTV that second place was not decided, given how Vuzrazhdane previously had attracted previously undecided voters who were looking to lodge a protest vote.

Zhivkov said that the difference in percentages between Dogan’s ARF and Peevski’s MRF – New Beginnng was decreasing, and this trend could continue in the days remaining before the October 27 vote.

“Expectations for a high share of the bought vote are not to be underestimated,” Zhivkov said.

“The overall picture does not look very good. What we are hearing in places is that entire villages are saying they will all vote.

“This suggests that there will be motivation and mobilization there, which may not be based on the classic methods of political ground work,” he said.

Thirty-seven per cent of those polled said that they intended voting. Zhivkov said that it was a common phenomenon that the stated readiness was usually lower than the actual turnout on election day.

He said that it may be expected that turnout would be similar to that in the June 2024 early parliamentary elections.

Satisfaction with the way the country was going was reaching critical values, Zhivkov said.

About 70-80 per cent are dissatisfied and only about 10 per cent satisfied.

The National Assembly currently has a disapproval rating of 74 per cent and an approval rating of only six per cent.

This was a record low level of trust in the Bulgarian Parliament, Zhikov said.

The poll was financed and carried out jointly by bTV and Market Links, and was done among 1014 people over 18 years of age in Bulgaria from October 15 to 20 using the methods of direct personal interviews and online polling.

The Sofia Globe’s factfile for the October 27 2024 early parliamentary elections is available at this link.

(Photo: parliament.bg)

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