The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Bulgaria’s economy to grow by 1.4 per cent this year before picking up to reach 3.5 per cent in 2024, according to its latest World Economic Outlook report.
IMF’s projection for Bulgaria’s economic growth is much lower than its forecast that the Fund made in last year’s World Economic Outlook report, which estimated 4.5 per cent growth in 2023.
Last year’s report, however, slightly underestimated growth in 2022, projecting 3.2 per cent, while Bulgaria ended the year with 3.4 per cent growth.
Overall, the report forecast the global economy would grow by 2.8 per cent in 2023, compared to 3.6 per cent projected in the April 2022 World Economic Outlook report, rising to three per cent in 2024.
The Fund said that the same forces that “shaped the world economy in 2022 seem set to continue into this year, but with changed intensities.”
“Commodity prices that rose sharply following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have moderated, but the war continues, and geopolitical tensions are high. Infectious Covid-19 strains caused widespread outbreaks last year, but economies that were hit hard – most notably China – appear to be recovering, easing supply-chain disruptions. Despite the fillips from lower food and energy prices and improved supply-chain functioning, risks are firmly to the downside with the increased uncertainty from the recent financial sector turmoil,” the IMF said.
The IMF said that the global economy was at “a highly uncertain moment”, as the adverse shocks of the past three years, namely the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, “manifesting in unforeseen ways.”
The recent upheaval in the banking sector has increased uncertainty and the Fund forecast that the balance of risks will remain on the downside so long as the financial sector remains unsettled.
These new concerns about financial stability, coming on top of the issues that affected global growth in 2022, increased the risk of a hard landing, particularly for advanced economies, the IMF said.
(Photo: Bruno Sanchez-Andrade)
Please support independent journalism by clicking on the orange button below. For as little as three euro a month or the equivalent in other currencies, you can support The Sofia Globe via patreon.com and get access to exclusive subscriber-only content: