Bulgaria’s 2021 presidential elections: Radev, Gerdzhikov set for run-off – Alpha Research

As the official campaign period ahead of Bulgaria’s November 14 presidential elections heads to a close, incumbent President Roumen Radev is set for a run-off contest with GERB-backed candidate Anastas Gerdzhikov, according to the results of a poll by the Alpha Research agency.

The poll found that Radev, standing as an independent with the backing of socialist and other parties, has 46.4 per cent support among those intending to vote. The Alpha Research poll at the start of the official campaign period found then that Radev had 42.6 per cent support.

If the results of Alpha Research’s poll are borne out on November 14, this would not be enough to give Radev a first-round victory, which under Bulgaria’s constitution requires at least 50 per cent of the vote with at least 50 per cent voter turnout.

Gerdzhikov is trailing a distant second with 28.3 per cent. At the start of the campaign, he had 28.1 per cent support.

Alpha Research commented that while Radev had the largest advance, he also had more difficulties compared with a month ago.

These included the growing frustration in recent weeks with the caretaker government appointed by Radev, especially about Bulgaria’s health crisis, inflation and electricity prices.

Radev’s strongest supporters were supporters of the Bulgarian Socialist Party and the We Continue the Change party.

Alpha Research said that the second round would be between Radev and Gerdzhikov.

Among the other 21 candidates in Bulgaria’s November 2021 presidential elections, Movement for Rights and Freedoms leader Mustafa Karadayi had 8.8 per cent support (he did not figure in Alpha’s start-of-campaign poll) while Democratic Bulgaria-backed Lozan Panov had 6.9 per cent support, down from 8.2 per cent at the start of the campaign.

Vuzrazhdane leader Kostadin Kostadinov has 3.2 per cent support, down from 3.9 per cent at the start of the campaign.

Collectively, the remaining presidential election candidates had 6.4 per cent support, Alpha Research said.

The Alpha Research poll was done from November 7 to 9 2021, using the agency’s own funds, and the results have been published on its website. The poll was done among 1017 adult Bulgarian citizens. A stratified two-stage sample with quotas for the main socio-demographic characteristics was used. The information was gathered through a direct standardised interview with tablets in the homes of the respondents. Alpha Research is responsible for the data and interpretation published on its website, but not for the selective or manipulative use of such data.

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