Bulgaria’s 2021 elections: Radev has 42.6% support among those intending to vote – Alpha Research

The results of a poll released by Alpha Research three days ahead of the start of the official campaign period for Bulgaria’s November 2021 presidential elections show incumbent President Roumen Radev as having 42.6 per cent support among those intending to vote.

Alpha Research said on October 12 that the poll was done between October 4 and 10, immediately after the announcement of the candidacies of Atanas Gerdzhikov (backed by GERB-UDF) and Lozan Panov (backed by Democratic Bulgaria) and before the Movement for Rights and Freedoms’ nomination of its leader Mustafa Karadayi as its presidential candidate.

As such, the poll reflects the initial public reactions before the contenders were more widely promoted and recognised by voters, the agency said.

The poll found that Radev’s strongest support came from supporters of the Bulgarian Socialist Party (more than 90 per cent of them) and “Rise Up Bulgaria” (80 per cent).

Just more than two-thirds of supporters of Slavi Trifonov’s ITN party and the We Continue the Change (WCC) party, founded by former caretaker ministers Kiril Petkov and Assen Vassilev, would vote for Radev, according to the poll.

After the nomination of Panov, a quarter of Democratic Bulgaria supporters expressed support for Radev, the Alpha Research poll found.

Gerdzhikov is in second place, with 28.1 per cent.

More than 80 per cent of the GERB electorate declared support for Gerdzhikov.

About 15 per cent of supporters of WCC, 12 per cent of Democratic Bulgaria supporters, about 30 per cent of supporters of the nationalist VMRO party and 10 per cent of supporters of other political forces would vote for Gerdzhikov.

There was serious support for Gerdzhikov among graduates and residents of Bulgaria’s larger cities, and it was among these categories he had the best chances of increasing his support, the agency said.

Panov gained initial support of 8.2 per cent, less than the support for Democratic Bulgaria in the country’s November 2021 early parliamentary elections, but he also had the potential to increase his vote, Alpha Research said.

The other known contenders receive between one and three per cent support. Thirteen per cent of them said that they would vote for “another candidate” and it can be assumed that about two-thirds of them would support an MRF candidate, the agency said.

The poll found that among those who intended voting in the presidential elections, 11.3 per cent had not yet decided whom to support.

The poll was done from October 4 to 10, using Alpha Research’s own funds and has been published on the agency’s website. It was done among 1123 adult citizens from all over Bulgaria. A stratified two-stage sample with a quotas from the main socio-demographic characteristics was used. The information was gathered through a direct standardized interview with tablets in the homes of the respondents. Alpha Research is responsible for the data and interpretation published on its website, but not for the selective or manipulative use of such data, the agency said.

(Photo, from left: Radev, Gerdzhikov and Panev)

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