EBRD holds Bulgaria’s 2026 economic growth projection at 2.7%

In its latest Regional Economic Prospects report, released on June 3, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) projects economic growth in Bulgaria at 2.7 per cent, the same figure as in the EBRD’s February report.

The June report forecasts 2.5 per cent economic growth for Bulgaria in 2027, down from 2.6 per cent in the EBRD’s February report.

Real GDP growth reached 3.1 per cent in 2025, despite lower energy exports and a contraction in the manufacturing sector, as domestic consumption was boosted by nominal wage growth of 12 per cent, a decline in the unemployment rate to 3.5 per cent, and household credit expansion of 21 per cent year on year, the EBRD’s new report said.

The current account deficit widened to almost three per cent of GDP in 2025, while HICP inflation averaged 3.5 per cent.

The general government deficit widened to approximately 3.5 per cent of GDP in 2025, fuelled by higher pensions, social transfers and defence investments, leading to a six percentage-point increase in the public debt ratio to 30 per cent of GDP.

Economic activity will be supported by ongoing RRF-driven investment and improved investor confidence following euro adoption and the establishment of a new government, which are expected to provide more clarity on the reform path and fiscal policy, according to the report.

At the same time, cooling wage growth and tighter fiscal constraints weigh on the outlook, the EBRD said.

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