EBRD forecasts Bulgaria’s economic growth at 2.7% in 2026
Bulgaria’s economic rowth is projected at 2.7 per cent in 2026 and 2.6 per cent in 2027, supported by the implementation of the already disbursed Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) tranches and improved business sentiment following euro adoption, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said on February 26.
In its Regional Economic Prospects report for February 2026, the EBRD said that Bulgaria’s real GDP growth remained robust in 2025 at an estimated 2.9 per cent, supported by strong real wage growth of around eight per cent while net exports declined as the Lukoil Neftohim refinery faced maintenance shutdowns and a complex transition to non-Russian crude under new state-appointed external management.
CPI inflation cooled to 5.0 per cent in December 2025 after an annual high of 5.3 per cent in July, though services and food prices remained elevated following VAT rate adjustments, the EBRD said.
The 2025 fiscal deficit approached 3.0 per cent of GDP owing to higher social spending and defence investments.
On January 1 2026, Bulgaria officially joined the euro zone, the report noted.
This transition is expected to reduce long-term financing costs, the EBRD said.
“At the same time, the resurgence of political instability in early 2026 poses risks to public investment implementation and the timely absorption of remaining RRF funds,” it said.
The EBRD’s forecast for Bulgarian economic growth in 2026 is 0.3 percentage points lower than in its September 2025 report, while the forecast for 2027 is up by 0.1 percentage points.
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