Bulgaria’s 2021 elections: Exacta poll sees six-group National Assembly

A poll by the Exacta Research Group, the results of which were released a day before the October 15 start of the official campaign period ahead of Bulgaria’s November early parliamentary elections, indicates that were elections held now, six parties and coalitions would win seats.

According to the poll, Boiko Borissov’s GERB-UDF coalition has the largest share of support among those intending to vote, at 23.5 per cent.

In second place is the We Continue the Change (WCC) party, founded by former caretaker ministers Kiril Petkov and Assen Vassilev, at 15.5 per cent, with Slavi Trifonov’s ITN party very narrowly behind it, at 15.2 per cent, and in turn, Kornelia Ninova’s Bulgarian Socialist Party close behind at 15 per cent.

The reformist Democratic Bulgaria coalition has 10.2 per cent support and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms 9.4 per cent, according to Exacta.

Below the four per cent threshold for seats in the next National Assembly are “Rise Up Bulgaria! We’re Coming!” (2.6 per cent), nationalist VMRO (2.5 per cent) and pro-Russian Vuzrazhdane (1.9 per cent), Exacta said.

Forty-nine per cent of those polled intend voting in the November early parliamentary elections, fewer than the 51 per cent who intend voting in the presidential elections being held the same day.

Twelve per cent of those who intend voting in the parliamentary elections are undecided about whom to vote for, compared with 13.6 per cent undecideds in the presidential election.

About a quarter of those who voted for ITN in the July 11 parliamentary elections now say they will support WCC, the Exacta poll found.

The agency said that it is possible that “Rise Up Bulgaria! We’re Coming” will lose up to 20 per cent of those who voted for it July, who will go over to WCC.

So far, the WCC has attracted no more than 15 per cent of those who voted for Democratic Bulgaria in July, and no more than five per cent who voted for the BSP, Exacta said.

WCC is the party attracting the most votes from those who did not vote in July.

One in five Bulgarians says they are disappointed with the party they voted for on July 11. People between the ages of 40 and 50 and those living in big cities are most disappointed, the poll found.

A fifth of those disappointed with the party they voted for on July 11 said they would not vote on November 14. Most of those disappointed, however, intend to vote for a party other than the one they chose in July.

Fifty-seven per cent of WCC voters are people disappointed with the parties they voted for on July 11, while the rest of their voters do not identify themselves as having been disappointed.

The Exacta Research Group poll was done between October 6 and 12 among a sample of 1025 adult Bulgarian, using the agency’s own funds. It was done in 70 places, using a stratified two-stage method with quotas for socio-demographic characteristics including place, gender and age. The poll was done through face-to-face interviews. The margin of error is about three per cent.

(Photo: parliament.bg)

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