New all-time highs of over $9200 for Bitcoin are being reached right now. The reason and timing for this $900 gain is unclear.
Was it all the Bitcoin talk over Thanksgiving Turkey or was it Wall Street brokers buying ahead of the CME Futures exchange listing? Or was it FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) setting in as many new Bitcoin wallet owners get impatient waiting to buy more coin?
In my November 3 article on sofiaglobe.com, I predicted $10 000 “soon” and that soon is looking like it could be within the next few days. However, $10 000 is a huge psychological number, and traders know this. If you were looking to cash-out some of your gains, then it may be prudent to do this around $9850. We have seen tops often falling short of round numbers and therefore sellers just missing out and then having to ride out a severe correction.
Bitcoin is still looking bullish so it is quite possible the price could blast through $10 000 and make it to $12 000 before the year end. In any event, traders are looking for a 30 per cent correction to around $7500 if we get a very sharp and short-lived spike in price.
What is a price bubble?
In a recent interview on Bulgarian National Television, I spoke about about price bubbles and Bitcoin, I attempted to explain that not all bubbles are created equally for all assets classes.
A bubble in the S&P500 index, followed by 40 per cent drop indicates, in hindsight, that the price was in a big bubble and typically a correction back to pre-crash levels often takes a few years. In the case of Bitcoin, similar percentage declines have shown the ability to bounce back within a week, or less.
Fear of banks and government money printing
Bulgarians seem to be catching on fast, if the meet-ups are indicative of interest. And with good reason because as I explained again in my interview; Bulgaria has a banking and a social history that leads to distrust in institutions. A virtual banking collapse in 1996 and more recently in 2014, the collapse of Corporate Commercial Bank saw customers lose their deposits in excess of the guarantee of 100 000 euro. There is no indication of bank stress in Bulgaria, but it’s worth remembering that KTB’s collapse came as a surprise for most people.
Memories of the Greek crisis where there was freeze on cash withdrawals and the Cyprus bank bail-in is something not lost in the minds of savers who are looking for a safe haven. It is also interesting to note that negative interest rates are the norm in Bulgaria, which has among the highest cost banking in the EU.
Globally, Bitcoin is moving more mainstream as the media discuss the real affects of quantitative easing.The turning of the printing presses may keep voters happy, but how about savers who are feeling the affects of a slow devaluation of their currency?
The recent comment from Deutsche Bank’s chief strategist, Ulrich Stephan, warns against Bitcoin, but then another Deutsche Bank strategist, Jim Reid, says “Although the current speculative interest in cryptocurrencies is more to do with blockchain technology than a loss of faith in paper money, at some point there will likely be some medium of exchange that becomes more universal and a competitor of paper money.”
Banks have a lot to fear when Bitcoin becomes more useable as a medium of exchange. We may have to wait until mid-2018 for the second layer solutions such as lightening network to be adopted but by then, the bankers will have bought up plenty of the coins for themselves. After all, there can only be 21 million Bitcoins. That’s not enough Bitcoin for each millionaire in the world to own just one each. But I can’t imagine bankers want to miss out on such a lucrative opportunity to package crypto assets for retail investors.
Alt Coin news
The price action has extended to most of the alt coins Bitcoin Cash, Etherium and Monero have recently reached new highs. Bitcoin Gold doubled in price last week in anticipation of it entering the top five coins on coin market cap. One to watch.
Disclaimer: This is an opinion piece and is not investment advice. You’re all big boys and girls and you know to never to invest any of your cash in Bitcoin or another crypto token that you can afford to lose all of it, without worrying. This is still one giant experiment and it could fail and is a space full of scammers and pumpers. Be smart and do your own research.
(Photo: Leszek Soltys/freeimages.com)