EBRD lowers Bulgaria’s 2013 economic growth forecast

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), the international financial institution that is one of the largest investors in emerging European economies, has lowered its projection for Bulgaria’s economic growth next year.

In its latest Regional Economic Prospects report published on July 25, the bank reduced its forecast for economic growth in 2013 to 1.7 per cent, compared to 2.5 per cent in the previous report published in May. For 2012, the forecast remains unchanged at 1.2 per cent, marginally lower than the Cabinet growth target of 1.4 per cent.

“Recovery is expected to continue to be modest in Bulgaria into 2012, in contrast to earlier projections of vigorous growth, due to sluggish export demand. However, the government continues to adhere to fiscal prudence, with the government budget marginally in surplus in the first five months of the year,” the report said.

EBRD took positive note of Bulgaria’s foray onto international financial markets earlier this month, saying that it “accessed capital markets in July 2012 on favourable terms, with a five-year 950 million euro Eurobond being heavily oversubscribed and achieving a yield of 4.25 per cent.”

Other countries in South-Eastern Europe also saw their forecasts cut, with Macedonia affected the worst – EBRD lowered its 2012 projection by 0.8 percentage points to 0.5 per cent and 2013 forecast by 0.6 percentage points to two per cent growth. The bank lowered its forecast for the SEE countries as a whole to 0.7 per cent growth this year (down from one per cent) and 1.7 per cent in 2013 (compared to 2.4 per cent in the previous report).

(Photo: Michael Faes/sxc.hu)



The Sofia Globe staff

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