Bulgaria’s July elections: Borissov’s GERB, Trifonov’s ITN neck-and-neck – exit poll

Written by on July 11, 2021 in Bulgaria - Comments Off on Bulgaria’s July elections: Borissov’s GERB, Trifonov’s ITN neck-and-neck – exit poll

An exit poll by Alpha Research agency, the results of which were released after voting ended in Bulgaria in the country’s July 11 early parliamentary elections, showed Boiko Borissov’s GERB party and Slavi Trifonov’s ITN in a neck-and-neck finish.

According to Alpha Research, Borissov’s GERB-UDF coalition had 23.5 per cent and Trifonov’s ITN 22.3 per cent.

The exit poll showed four other parties surpassing the threshold of a four per cent share of votes to win seats in the 46th National Assembly, with two – the Bulgarian Socialist Party and Democratic Bulgaria – similarly neck-and-neck:

Bulgarian Socialist Party 14.1 per cent

Democratic Bulgaria 14.1 per cent

The Movement for Rights and Freedoms 11.7 per cent

“Rise Up! Mobsters Out!” 5.5 per cent.

Compared with the results of the April 4 regular parliamentary elections, Trifonov’s party – which got 17.66 per cent at the time, according to official Central Election Commission results – has made gains, even without a high-profile public campaign.

But if the exit poll results are confirmed when the final results are announced by the Central Election Commission in coming days, ITN has not achieved the decisive victory over GERB-UDF that Trifonov had said that he sought.

In turn, Borissov’s coalition has shed support compared with April, when – again according to the CEC – it won 26.18 per cent of the vote.

Going by the Alpha Research exit poll, Democratic Bulgaria has improved its result from the official figure of 9.45 per cent in April, while the BSP is down from 15.01 per cent in that election.

“Rise Up! Mobsters Out!” is also up from the 4.72 per cent it got in April, according to the exit poll.

Alpha Research’s projection, based on its exit poll, of the share-out of seats in the next National Assembly.

A significant factor is that results from voting abroad are yet to come in, and may easily be expected to change the election night picture, as happened in April.

At the same time, the July 11 elections may again have produced a six-group National Assembly, broadly similar to its predecessor. The question then will be whether it – unlike its predecessor – will put in place an elected government, or not do so, in the latter case triggering early parliamentary elections once more.

For further details about the July 11 parliamentary elections, please visit The Sofia Globe’s Election Factfile.

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