Bulgaria’s population forecast to drop by about 20% by the year 2040 – Cabinet report

The population of Bulgaria will decrease by something between 20 and 25 per cent by the year 2040, according to a report commissioned by the government and submitted to Parliament.

The report was prepared by the Institute for Population and Human Studies at the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences based on a comparative analysis of official forecasts by Eurostat, Bulgaria’s National Statistical Institute, the United Nations and the World Bank.

Notwithstanding the projected reduction in mortality, which affects men and women to varying degrees, the gender structure of the population will remain basically the same, the report said.

The proportion of young people under 20 will remain much the same, but the number of people older than 65 will increase significantly.

The decline in population covers almost all areas of Bulgaria, except capital city Sofia, and this process is expected to continue throughout the period covered by the report.

At a pan-European level, Bulgaria is not the only country with a predicted declining population, the study said.

Eurostat’s projection is that the trend will be similar in 11 other EU countries – Lithuania, Latvia, Romania, Greece, Croatia, Portugal, Poland, Hungary, Estonia, Italy and Slovakia. Slovenia and the Czech Republic, where the number of the population is expected to remain unchanged by 2040, are likely to join them.

This leads to the conclusion that in almost half of the EU countries, a population decrease is expected, the report said.

(Photo: Krassimir Kosev)



The Sofia Globe staff

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