Security, intelligence agencies: Russia, Western Balkans instability main threats to Bulgaria’s national security
Russia and instability in the Western Balkans remain the main threats to Bulgaria’s national security, while if the Kremlin does not change its aggressive policy, the danger of a new armed conflict in the medium term is high, according to annual reports by Bulgaria’s security and military intelligence agencies.
A report by the State Agency for National Security (SANS), posted on the government website, outlines an escalation of hybrid actions, espionage activity, information attacks and cyber threats against Bulgaria, which is directly detrimental to national interests.
The Kremlin’s behaviour continues to be “a major generator of threats to Europe and globally,” with Bulgaria directly affected, according to the SANS report.
Moscow is escalating the application of an “evolving hybrid toolkit” that combines military demonstrations and threats to use nuclear weapons, intelligence and sabotage activities, economic pressure through dependencies (especially in the energy sector), massive disinformation and propaganda campaigns, and malicious cyberattacks.
In 2024, SANS identified and expelled two Russian citizens working as illegal intelligence officers for the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service. One person with Russian and Colombian citizenship was expelled, carrying out tasks for the Russian special services on the territory of EU and Nato countries.
A citizen of Belarus illegally entered the territory of a military unit.
Nineteen foreign citizens suspected of involvement in the activities of the Russian special services have been included in the list of foreigners persona non grata in Bulgaria for a period of five years.
The SANS report paints a particularly worrying picture for the Western Balkans region, which remains a zone of instability and growing risks for Bulgaria.
“The instability of the Western Balkans, stimulated by external and internal factors for the region, continues to generate risks to the security and realization of Bulgaria’s national interests,” the report says.
The war in Ukraine is turning the Black Sea into a zone of heightened tension and risk for Bulgaria, SANS warns.
“The war in Ukraine creates risks to the safety of shipping and aviation in the Black Sea region, including due to the use of electronic warfare and attacks against critical infrastructure.”
Particularly dangerous are the risks of transboundary pollution caused by military actions near nuclear power plants and oil facilities, as well as the use of the so-called “shadow fleet” by Russia for the illegal export of energy resources.
According to the Military Intelligence Service report, regardless of the outcome of the war in Ukraine, Moscow will continue to increase its aggressive policy.
Currently, there is no direct military threat to other country/countries in the region, the report said.
However, if the Kremlin does not change its aggressive policy, the danger of a new armed conflict in the medium term is high, it said.
“The goal of each side (in the Russian – Ukrainian war) is simply to outlast the other. There are already signs of exhaustion of the combat potential of the belligerents and there are initial attempts to initiate peace negotiations,” the report said.
According to the Military Intelligence Service, Putin’s leading goal in the negotiations will be to provide long-term legal guarantees for Russia’s security, including a Russian sphere of influence in the post-Soviet space.
In the background will be Ukraine, which will be forcibly subordinated to Russian interests – dependent, without its own identity, independent government, and military-political sovereignty.
The report says that Russia remains the main destabilizing factor in international security.
It says that the re-election of Putin for a new presidential term has consolidated the forceful approach in Russian politics.
Externally, the Kremlin is actively using hybrid methods of influence, including to create tension in the Euro-Atlantic community and to influence electoral attitudes in European countries, the report says.
Military Intelligence reports an increase in cybersecurity risks. It warns that the goals and scope of offensive cyber operations against critical systems in Bulgaria are expanding.
The risk of sabotage and sabotage against elements of critical infrastructure has also increased significantly.
There were numerous such incidents in 2024, the report added, without specifying examples or targets. Cases from the beginning of the year show that these hybrid instruments will be intensively applied in 2025 as well.
(Photo of the Kremlin: Anubis 8, via Wikimedia Commons)
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