Bulgaria’s June 2024 elections: Poll sees five groups winning seats

A poll by the Market Links agency, the results of which were released on May 10 immediately before the official campaign period ahead of Bulgaria’s June 9 2024 European Parliament and early National Assembly elections, see five coalitions and parties winning seats.

In the early National Assembly elections, among those who intend to vote, Boiko Borissov’s GERB-UDF coalition has 26 per cent support, the We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria coalition 17.7 per cent, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms 13.2 per cent, pro-Kremlin party Vuzrazhdane 12.9 per cent and the Bulgarian Socialist Party 8.1 per cent.

Market Links projected that in the next National Assembly, GERB-UDF would have 80 seats, up from 69 now, WCC-DB 55 seats, down from 64, the MRF 41, up from 36, Vuzrazhdane 39 seats, up from 37, and the BSP 25 seats, up from 23.

In the European Parliament elections, GERB-UDF has 26.4 per cent, WCC-DB 18.6 per cent, the MRF 11.7 per cent, Vuzhrazhdane 11.1 per cent and the BSP 8.4 per cent.

According to the pollsters, this would give GERB-UDF six of Bulgaria’s 17 seats in the European Parliament, unchanged from now.

WCC-DB – a coalition that did not exist at the time of the previous European Parliament elections – would have four seats, the MRF would have two, down by one, Vuzhrazhdane three (making it a first-time entrant) and the BSP two, down from five.

Dobromir Zhivkov of Market Links told bTV that the picture of electoral attitudes has been relatively constant in recent months.

He said that WCC-DB’s electoral support had dropped because they had failed to achieve their stated goals, and had been damaged by participation in the “assemblage” – the informal coalition with GERB-UDF and the MRF that had supported the Denkov government.

Zhivkov said that the “assemblage” was perceived as unprincipled by a large number of WCC-DB supporters, and this had been skillfully used by GERB.

GERB-UDF’s support remained at the same level, and it was rather the case that WCC-DB had lost support, he said.

“The maths is simple – 80 plus 41 makes 121,” Zhivkov said, referring to the projected number of seats in the National Assembly for GERB-UDF and the MRF, respectively, and to the threshold for voting a government into office.

“GERB and MRF can form the next government. They have the potential for that. We’ll see if that comes to fruition on election day,” he said.

“GERB and MRF are close to a majority, but it remains to be seen whether they will decide to form an independent cabinet. The expectation is to look for a broad coalition formula.”

According to the poll, 45.8 per cent of respondents said that they would vote in the National Assembly elections, and 43.9 per cent said that they would vote in the European Parliament elections.

The poll was financed and implemented jointly by bTV and Market Links. It was conducted among 1007 people over 18 years of age in the country from April 27 – May 9 2024, using the methods of direct personal interview and online polling.

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