Mathematics professor: ‘This wave of Covid-19 in Bulgaria will be the last’

February and March will see the last wave of new coronavirus in Bulgaria, after which vaccinations and warmer weather conditions will come to the rescue, mathematics Professor Nikolai Vitanov said in a television interview on February 6.

Recent days have seen a reversal of the earlier trend of reductions in the number of active cases of Covid-19 and fewer patients in hospital in Bulgaria.

This week, national operational headquarters chief Major-General Ventsislav Mutafchiyski said that it was possible that a third wave would arrive around the end of February and beginning of March.

Vitanov, an adviser to the national operational headquarters whose predictions of Covid-19 trends, based on mathematical modelling, generally have been accurate, said that data for Bulgaria remained rather good but in the coming days more cities and districts will be classified as “red zones”.

A red zone means that the incidence of Covid-19 infection is above 120 per 100 000 population.

The reason for this is the new variant of Covid-19, while the return of pupils to in-person classes is a factor, but not the main one, Vitanov said.

The gradual increase now cannot be said to be due to the easing of measures, Vitanov said.

He reiterated the need to comply with the anti-epidemic measures and wear protective masks properly.

“You see what’s going on in the malls – a clothing store full of ladies with masks under their noses,” Vitanov said. “That’s the same as them not wearing masks.”

The Sofia Globe’s coverage of the Covid-19 situation in Bulgaria is supported by the Embassies of Switzerland and Finland.

The Sofia Globe has no connection whatsoever to any Bulgarian government or state institution, nor to any Bulgarian political, business or media grouping. If you would like to support independent coverage of Bulgaria, please consider supporting The Sofia Globe via its Patreon account, for as little as three euro a month, or the equivalent in other major currencies:

Become a Patron!

The Sofia Globe staff

The Sofia Globe - the Sofia-based fully independent English-language news and features website, covering Bulgaria, the Balkans and the EU. Sign up to subscribe to's daily bulletin through the form on our homepage.