Bulgaria’s 2017 elections: As campaigns end, Borissov’s GERB has very narrow lead over BSP – Alpha Research

Boiko Borissov’s GERB has 31.7 per cent support and Kornelia Ninova’s Bulgarian Socialist Party 29.1 per cent, according to the results of a poll by Alpha Research released on Thursday, with just a few days left to the March 26 National Assembly elections.

This shows scant change from the Alpha Research poll results released on February 27 as the official election campaign period started, which had GERB at 31.5 per cent and the BSP at 29.6 per cent.

The nationalist United Patriots now had 8.9 per cent support, down from 10.8 per cent at the end of February, according to Alpha Research.

The Movement for Rights and Freedoms had 8.4 per cent, up from 6.8 per cent at the time of the first poll.

Vesselin Mareshki’s Volya party has climbed from 5.7 per cent to 6.8 per cent, according to Alpha Research.

The Reformist Bloc-Glas Naroden coalition has edged up from 3.9 per cent to four per cent. If these poll results are borne out in the March 26 vote, that would make the centre-right coalition – a rump of what it was before the breakaways of 2015 and 2016 – reasonably certain of seats in the 44th National Assembly, by overcoming the four per cent threshold for entry.

The socialist ABC-Movement 21 coalition is at 2.9 per cent, unchanged from February 27’s poll. However, experience has shown that poll results of this kind may indicate a fair chance of gaining a place in Parliament after the real ballots are counted.

Hristo Ivanov’s Yes Bulgaria is at 2.5 per cent, after getting 2.6 per cent in the Alpha Research poll at the start of the election campaign.

Radan Kanev’s New Republic coalition is at two per cent, slightly up from 1.5 per cent on February 27.

Lyutvi Mestan’s DOST may expect a bit less than one per cent of the vote, if the Alpha Research poll is correct.

The other parties and coalitions now have about 2.8 per cent support among them, Alpha Research said.

About 3.5 per cent of those polled said that they would tick the “I don’t support anyone” box on the ballot paper in Sunday’s election.

Sixty-two per cent of those polled said that they intended voting.

Alpha Research, commenting on the poll findings, said that the results indicated that if there is a National Assembly with five parliamentary groups, GERB would have 89 to 91 seats, the BSP 81 to 83, the United Patriots and the MRF each about 24 to 25, and Volya 18 to 19.

In a National Assembly with six groups, GERB would have 85 to 87 seats, the BSP 77 to 79, the United Patriots and the MRF 22 to 24, Volya 17 to 18 and the Reformist Bloc-Glas Naroden, 10.

The Alpha Research poll was done between March 20 and 22 2017 by the agency, posted on the site of the agency and carried out using its own funds. The survey was done among 1033 adult Bulgarian citizens across the country, using a stratified two-stage sample method. The responses were collected in direct interviews at the homes of the respondents.




Clive Leviev-Sawyer

Clive Leviev-Sawyer is the Publisher and Editor-in-Chief of The Sofia Globe. He is the author of the book Bulgaria: Politics and Protests in the 21st Century (Riva Publishers, 2015), and co-author of the book Bulgarian Jews: Living History (The Organization of the Jews in Bulgaria 'Shalom', 2018). He is also the author of Power: A Political Novel, available via amazon.com, and, on the lighter side, Whiskers And Other Short Tales of Cats (2021), also available via Amazon. He has translated books and numerous texts from Bulgarian into English.