IDC predicts key trends for 2015 – an explosion of innovation
In 2015, the driving force behind all of IDC’s predictions is the industry’s accelerating transition to the 3rd Platform for innovation and growth, built on the technology pillars of mobility, cloud computing, big data and analytics, and social business, as well as the rise of the Internet of Things (IoT).
“In 2015, the 3rd Platform will account for one third of global ICT spending and 100 per cent of spending growth,” says Frank Gens, Senior Vice President and Chief Analyst at IDC.
“The industry is now entering the most critical period yet in the 3rd-Platform era: The Innovation Stage.
“We expect to see an explosion of innovation and value creation, driven by a new wave of core technologies – ‘Innovation Accelerators’ – that radically extend the 3rd Platform’s capabilities and applications across all industries. Look for lots of vendor consolidation, ‘strange bedfellow’ partnerships, deathmatch battles for developers (and their apps), expanding cognitive/machine learning and IoT offerings, a growing focus on data supply chains, and skyrocketing influence for China.”
Check out the thrust of IDC’s predictions for 2015:
Worldwide ICT spending will grow 3.8 per cent in 2015 to more than $3.8 trillion. Nearly all of this spending growth will be focused on 3rd-Platform technologies. On a geographic basis, ICT spending in emerging markets is forecast to grow 7.1 per cent year over year while mature markets poke along at 1.4 per cent growth.
Telecommunications services will see wireless data emerge as the largest ($536 billion) and fastest growing (13 per cent) segment of telecom spending. To avoid being marginalized as little more than infrastructure providers, carriers will scramble to develop platform- and API-based services that add value and attract developers to their networks. They will also seek rapprochement with over-the-top (OTT) cloud services providers through innovative performance and revenue-sharing arrangements.
Mobile devices and apps will continue to charge ahead in 2015, but not at the frenzied pace seen in recent years. Sales of smartphones and tablets will reach $484 billion worldwide, accounting for 40 per cent of all IT spending growth (excluding telecom services), while Chinese vendors capture a significant share of the global market. Wearables will see an explosion of innovation, although unit sales will underwhelm. And mobile app downloads will start to slow in 2015, but enterprise mobile app development will double.
Cloud services will remain a hotbed of activity in 2015 with $118 billion in spending on the greater cloud ecosystem. Adoption of cloud Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) will grow briskly (36 per cent) as market leader Amazon comes under attack from all directions from competitor copycats.
Big data and analytics will see important developments in 2015 as worldwide spending on big data-related software, hardware, and services grows to $125 billion. Rich media analytics (video, audio, and image) will emerge as an important driver of big data projects. And big data supply chains (i.e., Data as a Service) will grow in importance as cloud platform and analytics vendors offer clients value-added information from commercial and open data sets. Elsewhere, IDC expects to see important new developments in cognitive/machine learning and Internet of Things (IoT) analytics.
The Internet of Things is one of the most important Innovation Accelerators for growth and expansion of IT-based value in the 3rd-Platform era. The invention of more and more intelligent and connected “things” will drive the development of thousands of new 3rd-Platform solutions. One third of IoT spending in 2015 will be focused on intelligent embedded devices outside the IT and telecom industries helped by partnerships among leading IT companies seeking to kickstart the market for industry solutions. Predictive maintenance will emerge as an important IoT solutions category.
The 3rd Platform is transforming not just the technology industry, but every other industry as well. IDC believes a number of industry disruptions, driven by 3rd Platform developments, will emerge in 2015. Examples include alternative payment networks in financial services, expansion of IoT technologies into city safety, public works and transportation systems, and the expansion of location-based services in the retail industry. The number of industry platforms – industry-specialized cloud-based data and services platforms, usually created by leaders within the industry – will expand rapidly, easily doubling in 2015.
In addition to the Internet of Things and cognitive/machine learning systems, two other Innovation Accelerators will become important growth drivers in 2015. “3rd Platform-optimized” security solutions will help to secure the edge of the cloud (i.e. biometric security on mobile devices) and the core (i.e., encryption in the cloud will become the default practice). And threat intelligence will emerge as a killer Data as a Service category with a rapidly growing number of enterprises receiving tailored threat intelligence information. Elsewhere, 3D printing will see significant activity among conventional document printing companies as they lay the groundwork for a looming battle for commercial and industrial markets in 2016.
* These trends and issues will be in focus at the IDC Predictions 2015 business breakfast at the Sofia Hotel Balkan on February 26 2015 at 9am. Sofiaglobe.com is a media partner of the event.
(Photo: Ilker)
