Market Links poll: Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria 30.8%, GERB-UDF 18%

Ex-president Roumen Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria coalition has 30.8 per cent support among those who intend voting in the early parliamentary elections on April 19, while Boiko Borissov’s GERB-UDF coalition has 18 per cent, according to a poll by the Market Links agency, the results of which were released on April 16.

Support for Progressive Bulgaria has increased from the 21.1 per cent shown in Market Links’s previous poll, the results of which were released on March 18, while GERB-UDF has dropped slightly from the 18.6 per cent shown in that poll.

According to the new poll, the We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria coalition has 11.2 per cent (down from a previous 12 per cent), the Movement for Rights and Freedoms – New Beginning – led by Magnitsky Act-sanctioned Delyan Peevski – 6.5 per cent (down from 7.2 per cent) and pro-Russian party Vuzrazhdane 4.2 per cent (down from 4.9 per cent).

Below the threshold of at least four per cent of valid votes to win seats in the National Assembly are Velichie 3.1 per cent, Siyanie 2.3 per cent, Mech two per cent and the Bulgarian Socialist Party – United Left coalition, two per cent. The previous poll showed the BSP – United Left as having three per cent support.

Market Links’s Dobromir Zhivkov told bTV: “We expect significantly higher voter turnout. Progressive Bulgaria draws on these new Bulgarian citizens in the electoral process.”

“In this picture that we are observing, there are 15 per cent who have not yet decided who they will vote for. About 90 per cent of those who are hesitating so far are heading towards Progressive Bulgaria,” Zhivkov said.

He said that the agency’s forecast about where the votes of the currently undecided would go was Progressive Bulgaria 38 per cent, GERB-UDF 19.8 per cent, WCC – Democratic Bulgaria 13.1 per cent, MRF – New Beginning 7.5 per cent and Vuzrazhdane 5.6 per cent.

The agency’s current projection for the distribution of seats in Bulgaria’s 240-seat National Assembly is Progressive Bulgaria 109, GERB-UDF 57, WCC – Democratic Bulgaria 37, MRF – New Beginning 21 and Vuzrazhdane 16.

The national poll was funded and carried out jointly by bTV and Market Links. It was done among 1003 individuals over 18 years of age in the country between April 7-14 2026, using the methods of direct personal interviews and an online survey.

(Photo: parliament.bg)

Bulgaria’s April 2026 parliamentary elections: The Sofia Globe’s factfile