Alpha Research: Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria 34.2%, GERB-UDF 19.5%

With two days to go to Bulgaria’s April 19 early parliamentary elections, a poll by the Alpha Research agency shows ex-president Roumen Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria as having 34.2 per cent support among those who intend voting, while Boiko Borissov’s GERB-UDF has 19.5 per cent.

Alpha Research’s previous poll, the results of which were released on March 29, showed Progressive Bulgaria at 30.8 per cent and GERB-UDF at 21.2 per cent.

The agency’s new poll shows the We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria coalition at 11.6 per cent, slightly up from 11.1 per cent in the previous poll.

The Movement for Rights and Freedoms – New Beginning, led by Magnitsky Act-sanctioned Delyan Peevski, has 9.4 per cent, slightly down from its previous 9.8 per cent.

Kostadin Kostadinov’s pro-Russian party Vuzrazhdane has 5.8 per cent, a drop from its previous 6.9 per cent.

The Alpha Research poll shows the Bulgarian Socialist Party – United Left coalition at four per cent, the threshold to win a share of seats in the National Assembly, and it is up from its previous 3.9 per cent. The new figure is in contrast with a poll by Market Links, which showed the BSP – United Left at two per cent.

Below the four per cent threshold is Siyanie, at 3.2 per cent, up from 2.8 per cent in the previous Alpha Research poll.

Nationalist-populist Velichie has 2.9 per cent, up from 2.8 per cent, and nationalist-populist Mech has 2.8 per cent, down from three per cent.

Cable television presenter Slavi Trifonov’s populist ITN has 1.7 per cent, previously 1.4 per cent, and the Ahmed Dogan loyalists of the Alliance for Rights and Freedoms 1.3 per cent, previously 1.2 per cent.

Alpha Research said that Progressive Bulgaria had had a lead of 10 points at the beginning of the official election campaign period and had increased this to almost 15 points.

GERB-UDF was retaining its solid core of voters, but with the expected higher voter turnout, its relative weight was decreasing.

The agency said that turnout on April 19 could now reach more than 3.3 million people, of about 60 per cent of adult Bulgarians living in the country. There has been a five per cent increase in the number of people who say that they will vote in the last week alone, according to Alpha Research.

After eight elections in five years and unsuccessful coalitions in cases where a government was formed, the prevailing attitude among Bulgarian citizens (49 per cent) is that one party should have a majority and bear full responsibility for governance, Alpha Research said.

For 33 per cent, the government, whatever it may be, needs control and they continue to rely on a coalition formula. Whether these attitudes will prove to be an additional factor in the choice of the ballot remains to be seen, but in any case they will be a guide for a future cabinet, the agency said.

The poll was done by Alpha Research from April 13 to 15 2026. It is published on the agency’s website and was carried out using the agency’s own funds. The poll was done among 1000 adult citizens from all over the country. A stratified two-stage sample with a quota based on the main socio-demographic characteristics was used. The information was collected through a direct standardised interview with tablets at the homes of the respondents.

BTV and Market Links carried out the national poll the results of which were released on April 16. It was done among 1003 individuals over 18 years of age in the country from April 7-14 2026, using the methods of direct personal interviews and an online survey.

(Photo: parliament.bg)

Bulgaria’s April 2026 parliamentary elections: The Sofia Globe’s factfile