Alpha Research poll: GERB-UDF 25.5%, We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria 13.9%
Were Bulgaria to hold parliamentary elections now, Boiko Borissov’s centre-right GERB-UDF coalition would get 25.5 per cent support among those who would vote, while the reformist We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (WCC – DB) coalition would get 13.9 per cent, according to a poll by the Alpha Research agency, the results of which were released on July 16.
In third place, close behind WCC – DB, is Magnitsky Act-sanctioned Delyan Peevski’s Movement for Rights and Freedoms – New Beginning, at 13.1 per cent.
Pro-Russian party Vuzrazhdane is at 11.5 per cent.
The Bulgarian Socialist Party – United Left coalition, a minority partner in the Rossen Zhelyazkov coalition government, is at 8.1 per cent, populist-nationalist party Mech 6.3 per cent, and populist ITN – another minority partner in the coalition government – at 4.7 per cent, followed by populist-nationalist party Veliche, four per cent.
The Ahmed Dogan loyalists of the Alliance for Rights and Freedoms have plummeted below the threshold of four per cent of valid votes to win seats in the National Assembly. The embattled group is at 2.8 per cent, compared with the 7.5 per cent it had in January 2025, according to Alpha Research’s poll of the time.
As The Sofia Globe reported at the time, the Alpha Research January 2025 poll found support for GERB-UDF as 26 per cent, WCC – DB 13.4 per cent, Vuzrazhdane 13.1 per cent, Peevski’s MRF – New Beginning 10.8 per cent, the BSP – United Left eight per cent, ARF 7.5 per cent, ITN 6.2 per cent and Mech four per cent.
Alpha Research said of the findings of its July 2025 poll that GERB remains the leading political force (25.5 per cent), with no significant difference in the result compared to the last elections or to the January data of Alpha Research.
Although at a significant distance, WCC – DB maintains its position as the second political force (13.9 per cent).
Two factors influence the limitation of the damage from the scandals – first, the stable positions of Democratic Bulgaria, which continues to enjoy a significant credit of trust, and second, the unity of the coalition’s supporters after the second action (in Varna), Alpha Research said. This was a reference to actions by prosecutors and the anti-corruption commission against the WCC-DB mayor of Varna, Blagomir Kotsev, which WCC-DB sees as politically-motivated repression.
“It is possible that after the ‘coup in Sofia’ the positions were more shaky, but after the second similar action there is a visible mobilization,” Alpha Research said, a reference to earlier actions by authorities against WCC-DB figures in municipal government in Bulgaria’s capital city.
Alpha Research said that support for the MRF-New Beginning had increased, with a dramatic erosion of support for ARF.
“It is entirely possible that in the near future Peevski’s party will collect all this vote and play with much stronger electoral cards. Moreover, due to specifics in the mobilisation of the ethnic vote, surveys as a rule measure lower results than those shown in elections,” the agency said.
No significant dynamics are observed in the two coalition partners of GERB, the BSP and ITN, Alpha Research said.
The BSP maintains its support of eight per cent, while ITN has recorded a slight decline (to 4.7 per cent).
“The electorate of this party is highly emotional and reacts strongly not only to unsuccessful actions, but also to offensive speech,” the agency said, a reference to a recent insult addressed to young medics by ITN’s parliamentary leader.
Symptomatic shifts are observed, however, in the nationalist spectrum, Alpha Research said.
It retains its volume of about 22 per cent of voters, but Vuzrazhdane is in retreat (to 11.5 per cent), at the expense of Mech (6.3 per cent), Velichie remains at 4.1 per cent.
“At this stage, two hypotheses can be put forward for this development, in which there will certainly be subsequent dynamics,” the polling agency said.
First, Vuzrazhdane relied mainly on protests against the euro, and President Radev also sharply entered this topic, the agency said.
“Thus, the party was unable to accumulate the votes of opponents of the single European currency for itself alone, and with the final decision to introduce the euro, people turned to searching for practical information on what and how to do, rather than radical street protests.”
The second hypothesis is related to the positioning of Mech in the more general populist discourse of the “anti-elites” type, which, combined with activity on social networks, attracts supporters of the sector who are susceptible to such messages.
“To this we must add the high volatility of this voter profile, who in recent years have successively switched from Ataka to NFSB, VMRO, Vuzrazhdane and who are generally inclined to look for new, more attractive exponents of their views,” Alpha Research said.
The poll was done from July 7 to 14 2025 and is part of regular polling by Alpha Research. It has been published on the agency’s website and was carried out using the agency’s own funds. The poll was done among 1000 adult citizens from all over the country. A stratified two-stage sample with a quota according to the main socio-demographic characteristics was used. The information was collected through a direct standardised interview with tablets at the homes of the respondents.
(Photo: parliament.bg)
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