Poll: 27% of Bulgarians believe Russia will win its war on Ukraine, 4% that Ukraine will win
Twenty-seven per cent of Bulgarians believe that Russia will win its war on Ukraine while only four per cent believe that Ukraine will win, according to the findings of a poll commissioned by the European Council on Foreign Relations.
Fifty per cent believe that Ukraine and Russia will reach a compromise settlement while the remainder did not know or believed in none of these scenarios.
Asked if Donald Trump becoming United States President made achieving peace in Ukraine more or less likely, 26 per cent of Bulgarians replied “much more likely”, 15 per cent “slightly more”, seven per cent said that it made no difference, 27 per cent said that they did not know, while 11 per cent said “slightly less likely” and seven per cent “much less likely”.
The poll found that 16.9 per cent of Bulgarians believed that Trump’s election was good for Bulgaria, 47.4 per cent said that it was good for American citizens, 11.6 per cent that it was bad for American citizens, and 45.1 per cent that it was good for peace in the world.
Asked what the US was to the European Union, 46 per cent of Bulgarians said that it was “a necessary partner with which we must cooperate”, 11 per cent “an ally that shares our interests and values”, 27 per cent “don’t know”, nine per cent “a rival with which we need to compete” and six per cent “an adversary with which we are in conflict”.
Asked an equivalent question about Russia and the EU, 16 per cent of Bulgarians described Russia as an ally, 41 per cent as a necessary partner, 24 per cent said “don’t know”, five per cent a rival and 14 per cent an adversary.
Responding to a question about, of Russia and Ukraine, which was more responsible for the war in Ukraine, 27 per cent said that both Russia and Ukraine were equally responsible.
Fifteen per cent said that it was Russia, while 14 per cent said “Russia, but Ukraine has some responsibility”.
Seventeen per cent said that it was Ukraine, but Russia had some responsibility and 12 per cent said that it was Ukraine.
Three per cent said neither and 12 per cent said “don’t know”.
Of the Bulgarians polled, asked if Ukraine is part of Europe, 47 per cent said no, 40 per cent said yes, and 14 per cent “don’t know”.
Asked what China was to the EU, 52 per cent of Bulgarians said that it was a necessary partner, seven per cent an ally, 28 per cent “don’t know”, 11 per cent a rival and three per cent an adversary.
Asked how likely is it that in the next 20 years, the EU will fall apart, 24 per cent of Bulgarians polled said that it was very likely and 28 per cent fairly likely.
Twenty-one per cent said that it was fairly unlikely, 17 per cent very unlikely and 10 per cent responded “don’t know”
The poll was part of public opinion polling of adult populations (aged 18 and over) conducted in November 2024 in 14 European countries (Bulgaria, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Switzerland, Ukraine and the United Kingdom). The overall sample included 18 507 respondents. A full report on the poll is available on the ECFR website.
In Bulgaria, the polls were conducted by Datapraxis and YouGov (1014 people; November 7 to 29).
(Photo: Enno Lenze)
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