EU spring economic forecast projects 2.5% growth for Bulgaria in 2026
The European Commission’s spring forecast for the EU economy, released on May 21, projected Bulgaria’s economic growth this year at 2.5 per cent, slightly lower than the 2.7 per cent figure in last year’s autumn forecast.
Bulgaria’s economy grew by 3.1 per cent in 2025, exceeding the Commission’s growth estimates in both the spring (two per cent) and autumn forecasts (three per cent).
The EC projected a slowdown in private consumption growth, the main driver of last year’s GDP growth, “amid lower wage and employment growth, as well as lower private investment”, while the adverse effects of the war in the Middle East are expected to reduce the purchasing power of households and weaken confidence.
“The conflict is also set to dampen aggregate demand through weaker employment growth and a slight downward revision to expected wage growth,” the EC said.
Nevertheless, the Commission’s estimate projects Bulgaria’s economic growth this year to be the fourth highest in the euro area, which the country joined on January 1, and fifth highest in the EU as a whole. The EC estimated economic growth at 0.9 per cent in the euro zone this year and 1.1 per cent for the EU as a whole.
For 2027, the EC projected 2.2 per cent growth in Bulgaria.
The spring forecast sharply increased its projection for harmonised inflation in Bulgaria, to 4.2 per cent, from an estimate of 2.9 per cent in last year’s autumn forecast. Bulgaria’s harmonised inflation, calculated for comparison with other EU countries, was 3.5 per cent in 2025.
This will be mainly driven by higher energy prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East and recent increases in food prices, the EC said.
Regarding Budget balance, the EC projected the deficit to widen to 4.1 per cent of GDP this year, from 3.5 per cent in 2025, and further rise to 4.3 per cent in 2027.
The spring forecast noted that Bulgaria is yet to pass a Budget for 2026, owing to the resignation of the Rossen Zhelyazkov government at the end of 2025 and early parliamentary elections.
“In this context, and in the absence of new adopted measures, expenditure is set to continue outpacing revenue,” the spring forecast said. The further widening of the Budget deficit was projected due to residual automatic mechanisms in social spending and sustained defence expenditure up to 2027.
(Photo: Steve Ford/sxc.hu)
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