Bulgaria and the euro: Finance Ministry does not expect to see inflation spike

Bulgaria’s National Statistical Institute will on February 3 publish its flash estimate of inflation and consumer price indices for January 2026 and the Finance Ministry does not expect that this will show a spike following the country’s adoption of the euro as its currency.

As a euro zone country, Bulgaria is now required to publish inflation flash estimates.

Speaking on January 27, Deputy Finance Minister Metodi Metodiev said: “We will see what the estimate is next week, I personally do not expect any major news in this regard”.

The Ministry of Finance’s forecasts show that inflation will be within the framework of its autumn macroeconomic forecast – around 3.5–3.6 per cent.

For next year, inflation, measured by the harmonised index of consumer prices, is also expected to report a slight decrease.

“Expectations for a sharp inflationary jump in the first month have practically disappeared. We do not expect serious shocks or surprises along these lines,” Metodiev said.

Addressing a weekly briefing, euro adoption coordinator centre head Vladimir Ivanov issued a reminder that after January 31, payment may only be in euro, with the end of the temporary euro – leva dual circulation period.

“All available leva in banknotes and coins can be exchanged without fees at the BNB indefinitely, and in commercial banks until June 30. There should be no panic and haste,” Ivanov said.

He said that the process of withdrawal of leva was going well, with currently 67 per cent of leva cash withdrawn and about 10 billion leva still in circulation.

Ivanov said that there was a notable drop in complaints about alleged abuses.

By January 25, the National Revenue Agency had carried out 1441 inspections of 394 grocery shops, 30 hairdressing and beauty salons, 11 hotels, 30 parking areas and 15 fitness centres.

Since January 1, a total of 4885 inspections had been carried out. Three violations had been identified, 293 administrative and criminal cases had been opened, and 67 fines had been issued adding up to close to 185 000 euro.

(Photo: European Commission Audiovisual Service)