Bulgaria’s June 2024 elections: GERB-UDF has 10-point lead – Alpha Research poll

Boiko Borissov’s GERB-UDF coalition has a lead of about 10 points ahead its nearest rivals in Bulgaria’s June 9 2024 early National Assembly and regular European Parliament elections, according to a poll by the Alpha Research agency, the results of which were released on June 6.

The results of the poll show that there is, in effect, a contest for second place, with three groups within the margin of error.

Among those who intend voting in the elections for Bulgaria’s 50th National Assembly, 25.1 per cent support GERB-UDF, 15.4 per cent We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria, 15.2 per cent Vuzrazhdane, 14.8 per cent the Movement for Rights and Freedoms, 8.1 per cent the Bulgarian Socialist Party and 6.2 per cent ITN.

Voter turnout in the early National Assembly elections would be 42 per cent, according to the poll.

Among those who intend voting in the European Parliament elections, 25 per cent support GERB, 15.9 per cent WCC-DB, 15.7 per cent Vuzrazhdane, 14.1 per cent the MRF, 7.9 per cent the BSP and 5.9 per cent ITN.

Voter turnout in Bulgaria’s European Parliament elections would be 39.5 per cent, the poll found.

According to the poll, 72 per cent of those who intend to vote, mostly loyal supporters of parties represented in the 49th National Assembly, made their minds up even before the start of the official month-long election campaign.

A further 16 per cent, mostly consisting of people who support recently-emerged formations, made their choice in the past month.

Twelve per cent intend to vote but have not yet decided for whom.

Alpha Research said that GERB-UDF’s role as the winner of the vote is beyond doubt, but its task of forming a majority around it remains difficult.

WCC-DB had suffered serious erosion, having lost two percentage points compared with a month earlier, and are practically level with Vuzrazhdane and the MRF, which were mobilising their supporters.

Vuzrazhdane was among the few parties to have seen growth during the campaign, the agency said.

The poll was done from June 1 to 4 2024, was carried out using Alpha Research’s own funds and has been published on the agency’s website. It was done among 1000 adult citizens from all over Bulgaria. A stratified two-stage sample was used with quotas for main socio-demographic characteristics. The information was collected through direct standarised interviews at the homes of the respondents.

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