GLOBSEC report: In Bulgaria, more people name Russia a strategic partner than a security threat

In Bulgaria, more people name Russia a strategic partner than a security threat, 51 per cent against 35 per cent, according to the GLOBSEC Trends 2026: The Reality Check report, released on November 13.

The report refers to polling done in mid-May in 14 countries: Czechia, Estonia, France, Germany, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Ukraine, the UK, the US and Bulgaria.

Bulgaria is the only country surveyed where Russia tops the list of strategic partners.

Just 35 per cent see Russia as a threat, fewer than anywhere else, while more say the same of the US.

Asked about what Russia does rather than what it is, concern rises: 56 per cent see Russian sabotage or disinformation as a risk, but this is the lowest of any surveyed country.

Perception of Russia as a key strategic partner varies widely across the 14 surveyed countries, with three outliers: Bulgaria, Slovakia, and Hungary.

“In Bulgaria, Russia is often viewed through historical liberation narratives, the memory of Russian intervention against Ottoman rule sustaining a degree of popular sympathy with few equivalents in the region,” the report said.

“That narrative has been reinforced by a political environment in which pro-Russian parties won elections, blocked reform coalitions, or opposed weapons transfers to Ukraine,” it said.

The report said that recent crises had prompted diversification that sharply reduced European dependence on Russian supplies, but public opinion remains split between principle and price.

While 62 per cent agree that European countries should stop purchasing Russian energy given the risk of political pressure, 49 per cent would still permit their own country to buy from Russia if energy costs ran high – rising to 75 per ceent in Bulgaria, 66 per cent in Hungary and 63 per cent in Slovakia.

Were a referendum on Nato membership to be held now, 57 per cent of Bulgarians would vote to stay in the Alliance – however, this is the lowest among the countries surveyed.

Bulgarians are the most susceptible to Russian propaganda and believe Russian narratives about the war in Ukraine, it emerges from the report. Bulgaria is the only country where only 51 per cent of people believe that Russia is responsible for the war and invaded Ukraine.

A full 65 per cent of Bulgarians believe that Ukrainian authorities have repressed Russian-speaking minorities, and this is sufficient justification for the Russian invasion. Fifty-eight per cent of Bulgarians believe another thesis used by the Kremlin, that the Europeans and Americans provoked Russia and are responsible for the war.

According to GLOBSEC, Slovakia and Hungary are the other countries where the Kremlin’s claims justifying the Russian invasion are most widely spread. The report says that in Bulgaria the acceptance of the Kremlin’s explanations for the war is most pronounced.

These results are also consistent with previous GLOBSEC studies, which reported a widespread spread of manipulative narratives in Bulgaria, the report said.

Bulgaria is also in last place in terms of support for continued European aid to Ukraine regardless of US actions (40 per cent). In terms of Nato military aid to Ukraine, Bulgaria is second to last (36 per cent), followed only by Hungary (33 per cent).

Furthermore, only 39 per cent of Bulgarians believe that Ukraine’s fight against Russia is important for the future security of their own country. This is again the lowest score in the survey.

On issues related to defence and the army, Bulgarians have conflicting positions. Seventy-one per cent want the return of compulsory military service, and 66 per cent say they would defend their country if attacked.

Meanwhile, however, less than half of Bulgarians (49 per cent) trust their own army. Bulgaria is in 13th place (20 per cent) in terms of the country’s sense of preparedness in the event of a major crisis or war. Only Slovakia is behind Bulgaria, with 19 per cent.

Sixty-five per cent of respondents agree that Bulgaria should increase its defence spending. However, support is cut by almost half when the increase has to be financed through cuts in social or healthcare spending. Only 34 per cent of Bulgarians would support higher military spending under such conditions.

Bulgaria records the weakest support for EU membership, with only 53 per cent potentially voting to stay. Yet, 59 per cent see economic benefits in membership, and seven in 10 want the EU to build its own defence alongside Nato and an EU army. The data hints that respondents in Bulgaria appear to value what the EU delivers more than belonging to it, the report said.

Around one in four respondents in Hungary and Bulgaria perceive China among their most important strategic partners.

“In Bulgaria, the driver appears more political than economic: limited attention to China as a strategic rival, influence advancing through media and local academic and business partnerships, public opinion inclined to view China as a partner rather than a threat,” the report said.