Bulgaria’s October 2024 elections: Parliament with seven groups, possibly more – poll
Seven groups are sure of seats in Bulgaria’s 51st National Assembly that will be elected on October 27, with three smaller formations still below the four per cent threshold also fighting for a place, according to a poll by the Exacta Research Group, the results of which were released on October 25.
According to the poll, Boiko Borissov’s centre-right GERB-UDF coalition has a clear lead of 26.7 per cent among those who intend voting.
Competing for second place are the reformist We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria coalition, 14.6 per cent, and pro-Kremlin party Vuzrazhdane, 14.3 per cent.
Movement for Rights and Freedoms founder Ahmed Dogan’s Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (ARF) coalition has 8.1 per cent, the Bulgaria Socialist Party – United Left coalition 7.5 per cent and Delyan Peevski’s MRF – New Beginning 7.3 per cent, according to Exacta.
Cable television presenter Slavi Trifonov’s populist ITN has six per cent, making it the seventh group to be above the threshold of at least four per cent of valid votes to win seats in Parliament.
Just below the four per cent threshold is populist-nationalist party Mech, at 3.7 per cent.
Right-wing coalition Blue Bulgaria has 2.8 per cent and populist-nationalist Velichie has 2.7 per cent.
Exacta said that its poll found that Vuzrazhdane has more support than WCC-DB among men and among the oldest voters, while WCC-DB has better positions than Vuzrazhdane among young and educated Bulgarians, as well as among those living in larger cities – capital Sofia and district capitals.
It is difficult to predict how the race between ARF and MRF – New Beginning will end on election day, Exacta said.
Seventy-one per cent of those polled do not believe that it is possible for Bulgaria to have a good and stable government after the elections on October 27.
Twenty-nine per cent of those polled were optimistic. GERB-UDF and WCC-DB voters more often assume that good governance is possible.
The poll by the Exakta Research Group was done from October 19 to 22 2024. A total of 1050 adult Bulgarians were interviewed in 71 settlements of the country. A stratified two-stage sample was used with a quota based on basic socio-demographic characteristics. The registration method is a direct semi-standardized face-to-face interview. The maximum permissible error for the 50 per cent relative shares is +/- 3%. The poll was done using the funds of Exacta Research Group. The poll was done on the territory of Bulgaria and the data do not reflect the attitudes of voters abroad.
(Photo: parliament.bg)
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