Bulgaria’s October 2024 elections: Exit poll suggests seven-group Parliament
An exit poll by the Alpha Research agency, the results of which were released at the close of voting in Bulgaria’s October 27 2024 early parliamentary elections, suggested that the 51st National Assembly will have seven groups, though final official results may change the picture.
According to the poll, the largest share of votes went to Boiko Borissov’s centre-right GERB-UDF coalition, 26.4 per cent.
The poll showed the results for other parties and coalitions as:
The reformist We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (WCC-DB) coalition: 14.9 per cent
Pro-Kremlin party Vuzrazhdane: 12.9 per cent
Delyan Peevski’s Movement for Rights and Freedoms – New Beginning coalition: 8.9 per cent
MRF founder Ahmed Dogan’s Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (ARF) coalition: 8.7 per cent
The Bulgarian Socialist Party – United Left coalition: 7.8 per cent
Television cable presenter Slavi Trifonov’s populist party ITN: 6.2 per cent
According to Alpha Research, just below the threshold of a least four per cent share of valid votes to win seats were:
Nationalist-populist party Mech: 3.8 per cent
Nationalist-populist party Velichie: 3.7 per cent
An exit poll by the Market Links agency, as reported by bTV, showed:
GERB-UDF 27.3 per cent
WCC-DB 14.4 per cent
Vuzrazhdane 12.5 per cent
MRF – New Beginning 10.6 per cent
BSP – United Left 8.4 per cent
ARF 6.8 per cent
ITN 6.5 per cent
Velichie 3.8 per cent
Mech 3.4 per cent.
According to the Central Electoral Commission (CEC) voter turnout at 4pm was 26.25 per cent. This compares with 20.44 per cent at the same time in Bulgaria’s June 2024 early parliamentary elections, in which the CEC reported a final turnout of 34.41 per cent at 8pm.
Election day passed with few technical glitches.
By the late afternoon voting was suspended for a total of 95 machines – 91 in Bulgaria and four abroad.
There appears to have been little in the way of tensions. BTV posted video of one of its election coverage teams being assaulted by people outside a political party office in a settlement in Haskovo. From the video, it appeared that the office was that of Peevski’s coalition.
WCC-DB frequently has made allegations of large-scale vote-buying, in particular by Peevski’s coalition. The Interior Ministry has made much of frequent announcements of special operations against vote-buying.
The October 27 vote was the seventh time since regular parliamentary elections in April 2021 that Bulgarians were called on to elect a legislature. Only two of those six elections produced a regular government, in both cases, short-lived.
Close-of-campaign polls ahead of the latest vote showed that few Bulgarians believe that the 51st National Assembly will succeed in producing an elected government.
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