Bulgaria’s October elections: Seven-group Parliament possible – poll
A Parliament consisting of seven groups is possible after Bulgaria’s October 27 2024 early parliamentary elections, according to the results of a poll by the Alpha Research agency, the results of which were released on September 26.
On the eve of the official start of the election campaign, Boiko Borissov’s centre-right GERB-UDF has the largest share of support among those who intend voting, at 23.9 per cent, Alpha Research said.
In second place is the reformist We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria coalition, 14.4 per cent, followed closely by pro-Kremlin party Vuzrazhdane, 14.2 per cent.
Movement for Rights and Freedoms founder Ahmed Dogan’s Alliance for Rights and Freedoms coalition had 7.9 per cent, the Bulgarian Socialist Party-United Left coalition 6.3 per cent, Delyan Peevski’s Movement for Rights and Freedoms-New Beginning coalition 6.1 per cent and cable television presenter Slavi Trifonov’s populist ITN party 5.4 per cent.
Just below the four per cent threshold for a share of seats in the 51st National Assembly is nationalist-populist party Velichie, at 3.2 per cent.
The Alpha Research poll found that among those who intend voting, eight per cent were undecided.
Alpha Research said that Bulgarian voters enter the campaign “tired and demotivated by the fruitlessness of the June elections and by the growing inability of the party elites to bear responsibility and master complex political situations”.
The October 27 early parliamentary elections are the seventh time since 2021 that Bulgarians are electing a legislature. Only two of the previous parliamentary elections in the past three years have produced an elected government, neither of which came close to serving a full term.
About 61.6 per cent of adult citizens surveyed by Alpha Research define the current situation as “extremely worrying, with destabilisation and non-functioning institutions”.
This opinion dominates in all social and electoral groups, with only a part of the residents of big cities and GERB supporters being slightly less critical.
Against this background, 53.8 per cent of Bulgarians no longer expect a government to be formed even after the elections on October 27.
Alpha Research recorded a sharp reversal in attitudes compared to the previous two elections, when most people still expected the election of a regular cabinet.
“The growing conviction that politicians will not cope with their main parliamentary task this time is a powerful factor in reducing voter turnout,” the polling agency said.
“Only the most ardent party supporters, who are the most motivated to vote, believe that there will be a government this time.”
The majority is of the opinion that no cabinet will be formed, and this attitude is stronger the weaker the motivation to vote, Alpha Research said.
“The campaign is just beginning, but given the persistence of these attitudes, it is very unlikely that the parties will attract votes from outside their hard cores and thus sharply increase voter turnout,” it said.
The split in the MRF continues to trigger a cascade of political, judicial and institutional reactions, but it is the elections that will show where the centre of electoral gravity lies and how stable it is, the agency said.
In this process, it is not unimportant what the public evaluations are on key events in the until recently monolithic party.
Asked who represented the authentic MRF and has the right to bear the name, 53 per cent said the Dogan grouping and 14.9 per cent that around Peevski.
Among Bulgarian Muslims – the traditional electorate of the MRF – 43 per cent said Dogan and 27 per cent Peevski.
A total of 51.8 per cent believe that neither wing of the MRF should take part in a future government, while 16.2 per cent give this right to the Dogan faction and 10.6 per cent – to the Peevski faction. Only nine per cent are willing to allow a peaceful coexistence between the two wings in a future administration.
About 30-31 per cent of Bulgarians who have the right to vote are ready to do so in the early elections in October, which is a drop of about three percentage points compared with the June elections: “a logical trend given the growing disillusionment with the parties and increasingly strong doubts that a government will be formed,” Alpha Research said.
The broad left unity around the BSP is failing to achieve mobilization and counteract the negative trend in the left, the poll found.
With a result of 6.3 per cent, the BSP has one of its lowest figures at the start of a campaign period.
Several parties are gravitating around the four per cent, “but it is not ruled out that the protest vote will push other exotic entities up as well,” the agency said.
(Photo: parliament.bg)
The poll was done from September 18-24 2024 by Alpha Research, is published on the agency’s website and was carried out using the agencys’s own funds. The poll was done among 1000 adult citizens from all over the country. A stratified two-stage sample with a quota according to the main socio-demographic characteristics was used. The information was collected through a direct standardised interview with tablets at the homes of the respondents.
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