Poll: Images of Putin, Russia have sharply deteriorated in Bulgaria

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the images of Vladimir Putin and Russia have sharply deteriorated in the eyes of Bulgarians, regardless of their past sympathies, a poll has found.

The poll was done by the Alpha Research agency on behalf of the Human and Social Studies Foundation – Sofia (HSSF) and is linked to continuing studies on Russian propaganda in Bulgaria.

Putin and Russia are not longer defined as reliable partners and “peacekeepers”, but as unpredictable entities that could take any arbitrary action without respecting human rights and national sovereignty of other countries, the poll found.

In 2017, Putin had an approval rating among Bulgarians of 43 per cent, rising to 45.2 per cent in 2018, dropping to 24 per cent in 2023 and 22.1 per cent in 2024.

Russia had an approval rating among Bulgarians of 51.2 per cent in 2017, rising to 60.1 per cent in 2018, and falling to 36.5 per cent in 2023 and 31.8 per cent in 2024.

A report on the poll said that Russian propaganda had gone too far and is turning the attitudes of Bulgarians against Russia.

People clearly appreciate the advantages of the country’s membership in the EU, they do not want a “strong hand”, but a liberal democracy, and they hope that the war in Ukraine will end soon. The majority of Bulgarians consider Russia to be the aggressor.

The fear that a possible Putin victory in Ukraine would untie the hands not only of the Kremlin but also of other countries to impose their dictates over smaller ones is increasingly eroding Russia’s image and trust, the poll found.

In this context, the European Union and Western democracies remain a priority and preferred geopolitical orientation for Bulgarians.

The weaknesses of the Kremlin regime are becoming more and more clearly apparent, but there is still an understanding that, due to historical reasons and geographical proximity, “we must maintain our good relations with Russia and not have a sharp confrontation with it”.

Thus, pragmatism emerges as the leading vector in assessments and understandings of Bulgaria’s geopolitical orientation.

The core of persistent opponents of European integration ranges between 20 and 25 per cent and is mainly concentrated among the older population, in small towns, supporters of of pro-Kremlin party Vuzrazhdane, the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) and some of those who do not vote.

One of the most serious barriers against the influence of anti-European suggestions, as well as in 2023, is thinking in the “Bulgaria outside the EU” alternative.

Regardless of all the criticism of Brussels, the ideas of the majority of Bulgarians differ from the apocalyptic picture painted by pro-Kremlin propaganda of the decline and regression of the West, as the worst place to live in the world.

Thus, from one point on, anti-liberal propaganda became counterproductive to its own goals, the report said.

Euroscepticism continues to have a breeding ground and is supported by clear political voices in the form of the pro-Russian BSP, Vuzrazhdane and some smaller parties.

After the beginning of the Russian aggression in Ukraine, when it became clear that the positive image of Russia as a saviour from Nazism and of Putin as a “peacemaker” could no longer be maintained, the main lines of the hybrid propaganda were shifted to the relativization of responsibility, through the “sharing between the two warring countries”, towards reducing solidarity with the Ukrainian people, discrediting the “collective West” and in particular the United States, by strengthening its image as a “world gendarme”.

These influence public opinion, polarize society and feed various pro-Kremlin political proxies.

Although they did gain ground, these messages did not result in bringing into question Bulgaria’s belonging to Nato and the geopolitical choice of the country. On the contrary, there has even been some growth in support for Nato membership due to fears of Russian aggression.

The poll found that there is a connection between citizens’ expectations of the prospects for Bulgarian society and their attitude towards Euro-Atlanticism.

As pessimism and dissatisfaction increase, so do negative assessments of the EU. Conversely, people with more optimistic expectations are more likely to declare confidence in the EU.

The more dissatisfied social groups in a personal and social plan there are in a society, the greater the risk of the breakthrough of various populist parties and movements.

Since one of their main tools for mobilizing support is the construction of an external threat (against traditional values, against “our”, “authentic” ways of life, etc.), the EU is one of the easy targets for reaping electoral dividends.

The series of inconclusive early elections in the past four years in Bulgaria and the inability of the parties to form a government cause an ebb of desire to participate in political life and elections.

In such an environment, the ideas of “restarting” the political system seem more and more acceptable, and the democratic system itself – more and more vulnerable.

At the moment, the attitudes of Bulgarians towards the various forms of government are in favor of liberal democracy (64 per cent), and the evaluations of it and the levels of trust in the EU are largely interrelated.

A potential erosion of approval of the EU carries with it risks of alienation from democratic principles in general, and vice versa.

The report said that hybrid propaganda is successful because of the passivity and electoral calculations of pro-Western parties and politicians.

There are no clear messages from the political class about Russia’s real vulnerabilities, nor about what Bulgaria would lose if it left the current Euro-Atlantic partnerships, it said.

(Photo: kremlin.ru)

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