Bulgaria’s June 2024 elections: GERB-UDF has 10-point lead – Exacta poll

Boiko Borissov’s GERB-UDF coalition has a lead of 10 points ahead its nearest rivals in Bulgaria’s June 9 2024 early National Assembly and regular European Parliament elections, according to a poll by the Exacta Research Group agency, the results of which were released on June 7.

Like several other polls released in the last week of the campaign before election day, Exacta’s survey showed a close race in the contest for second place, with three groups within the margin of error.

Among those who intend voting in the elections for Bulgaria’s 50th National Assembly, 26.4 per cent support GERB-UDF, followed by 15.5 per cent for We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (WCC-DB).

Pro-Russian Vuzrazhdane had 14.8 per cent support and predominantly-ethnic Turk Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) 14.6 per cent, followed by nine per cent for the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) and 6.2 per cent for cable TV presenter Slavi Trifonov’s ITN.

Voter turnout in the early National Assembly elections would be around 40 per cent, or 2.5 million to 2.7 million, according to the poll, as quoted by Bulgarian National Radio (BNR).

Among those who intend voting in the European Parliament elections, 26 per cent support GERB-UDF, 15.9 per cent WCC-DB, 15.1 per cent Vuzrazhdane, 14.2 per cent the MRF, 8.8 per cent the BSP and 6.2 per cent ITN.

Exacta said that GERB-UDF widened the gap at the top mainly due to the drop in the support for WCC-DB. Several electoral coalitions gained support during the campaign period among “some of the disillusioned and apathetic voters,” BNR quoted the polling agency as saying, but not enough to surpass the four per cent threshold for parliamentary representation or 5.88 per cent required to win an MEP seat.

The poll was done from May 30 to June 4 2024 and was carried out using Exacta Research Group’s own funds among 1050 adult citizens from all over Bulgaria. A stratified two-stage sample was used with quotas for main socio-demographic characteristics. The information was collected through direct semi-standardised face-to-face interviews.

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