In the second round of Bulgaria’s presidential elections on November 13, socialist-backed candidate Roumen Radev has 49.6 per cent support, his GERB rival Tsetska Tsacheva 39.1 per cent and 11.3 per cent of voters intend opting for the “I don’t support anyone” box on the ballot paper, Alpha Research said on November 11.
About one of five of those who voted at the first round on November 6 will not go to the polls this coming Sunday, the survey found.
Voter turnout was expected to be about 52.6 per cent.
Radev, the nominee of an initiative committee and backed by the opposition Bulgarian Socialist Party, would at the second round have the backing of the Movement for Rights and Freedoms’ electorate, about 80 per cent of those who had voted for ABC’s Ivailo Kalfin and 40 per cent of those who had backed nationalist candidate Krassimir Karakachanov and business person Vesselin Mareshki.
Tsacheva’s second-round support would come from several groups. About 56 per cent of those who voted for the Reformist Bloc’s Traicho Traikov at the first round would vote for Tsacheva at the second, and she also had a share of those who had voted for Karakachanov and Mareshki.
At the same time, there was an undecided voter factor. About 25 per cent of those who intended voting had not yet chosen a candidate. Alpha Research said it was also possible that those who had said that they would choose “I don’t support anyone” would change, to choose a specific candidate.
Alpha Research also noted that if parliamentary elections were held today, Prime Minister Boiko Borissov’s GERB party would remain the one with the most support, with the BSP running second.
The poll, Nova Alpha Index, was the result of a joint project by Nova Televizia and Alpha Research. The survey was done between November 9 and 10 2016. It was carried out by Alpha Research, commissioned and paid for by Nova Televizia. The survey was done among 1100 adult Bulgarian citizens across the country. The methodoloy was a stratified two-stage sample with a quota on the main socio-demographic characteristics. The poll was done by direct interviews at the homes of respondents. Alpha Research is responsible for the data and interpretation published on its website, but not for selective or manipulative use of such data.